{"product_id":"end-times-elites-counter-elites-and-the-path-of-political-disintegration-hardcover","title":"End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration - Hardcover","description":"\u003cdiv\u003e\u003cp style=\"text-align: right;\"\u003e\u003ca href=\"https:\/\/reportcopyrightinfringement.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\"\u003e\u003cb\u003eReport copyright infringement\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/a\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\u003c\/div\u003e\u003cp\u003eby \u003cb\u003ePeter Turchin\u003c\/b\u003e (Author)\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e\"Peter Turchin brings science to history. Some like it and some prefer their history plain. But everyone needs to pay attention to the well-informed, convincing and terrifying analysis in this book.\" --Angus Deaton, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics \u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003eFrom the pioneering co-founder of cliodynamics, the groundbreaking new interdisciplinary science of history, a big-picture explanation for America's civil strife and its possible endgames \u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003ePeter Turchin, one of the most interesting social scientists of our age, has infused the study of history with approaches and insights from other fields for more than a quarter century. \u003ci\u003eEnd Times \u003c\/i\u003eis the culmination of his work to understand what causes political communities to cohere and what causes them to fall apart, as applied to the current turmoil within the United States. \u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003eBack in 2010, when \u003ci\u003eNature\u003c\/i\u003e magazine asked leading scientists to provide a ten-year forecast, Turchin used his models to predict that America was in a spiral of social disintegration that would lead to a breakdown in the political order circa 2020. The years since have proved his prediction more and more accurate, and \u003ci\u003eEnd Times \u003c\/i\u003ereveals why. \u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003eThe lessons of world history are clear, Turchin argues: When the equilibrium between ruling elites and the majority tips too far in favor of elites, political instability is all but inevitable. As income inequality surges and prosperity flows disproportionately into the hands of the elites, the common people suffer, and society-wide efforts to become an elite grow ever more frenzied. He calls this process the wealth pump; it's a world of the damned and the saved. And since the number of such positions remains relatively fixed, the overproduction of elites inevitably leads to frustrated elite aspirants, who harness popular resentment to turn against the established order. Turchin's models show that when this state has been reached, societies become locked in a death spiral it's very hard to exit. \u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003eIn America, the wealth pump has been operating full blast for two generations. As cliodynamics shows us, our current cycle of elite overproduction and popular immiseration is far along the path to violent political rupture. That is only one possible end time, and the choice is up to us, but the hour grows late.\u003ch3\u003eAuthor Biography\u003c\/h3\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePeter Turchin\u003c\/b\u003e is a project leader at the Complexity Science Hub Vienna, a research associate at the University of Oxford, and an emeritus professor at the University of Connecticut. Trained as a theoretical biologist, he is now working in the field of historical social science that he and his colleagues call cliodynamics. Currently his main research effort is directed at coordinating CrisisDB\u003ci\u003e, \u003c\/i\u003ea massive historical database of societies sliding into crisis--and then emerging from it. His books include \u003ci\u003eUltrasociety\u003c\/i\u003e and \u003ci\u003eAges of Discord\u003c\/i\u003e.\u003c\/p\u003e\n            \u003cdiv\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003eNumber of Pages:\u003c\/strong\u003e 368\u003c\/div\u003e\n            \u003cdiv\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003eDimensions:\u003c\/strong\u003e 1.27 x 9.81 x 6.42 IN\u003c\/div\u003e\n            \u003cdiv\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003ePublication Date:\u003c\/strong\u003e June 13, 2023\u003c\/div\u003e\n            ","brand":"BooksCloud","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":53756901622093,"sku":"9780593490501","price":30.0,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0927\/3304\/7117\/files\/djdvalVXNHhic20vK1ZjQWE3V3QxUT09.webp?v=1776754779","url":"https:\/\/belfastbooks.us\/products\/end-times-elites-counter-elites-and-the-path-of-political-disintegration-hardcover","provider":"belfastbooks.us","version":"1.0","type":"link"}